Charts and demand: Empirical generalizations on social influence

Social influence on consumer behavior has long been a subject of academic research in various scientific fields. According to research by Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006), music demand is a function of social influence between consumers. Market concentration tends to increase when information on demand becomes publicly available. In addition, stochastic agglomeration caused by social influence decreases the predictability of market success. These heavily cited findings challenge traditional market research and provide important insights on the impact of social media and sales charts. We test the stability of their results by replicating the study on music demand in a slightly different setting. We further investigate the generalizability of findings by probing other product categories and different phases of purchase decisions, i.e., interest, consideration, and actual demand. Across all categories and across all dependent variables, we are able to replicate the direction of the effects. We do, however, consistently obtain smaller effect sizes than reported in the original paper.     

Fairness and the employment contract: North American regions versus Germany

Substantial evidence shows that North Americans are generallymore accepting of the market than Europeans and attribute marketoutcomes to a larger degree to effort or skill. Thus, NorthAmericans might be more accepting of layoffs and pay cuts thanGermans, and Germans might be more sensitive to the proceduresand conditions under which pay cuts and layoffs occur. The empiricalresults from our quasi-experiment are largely in line with thesehypotheses. The results may help to explain and be explainedby the different labour market institutions in the differentregions.     

Drift matters: An analysis of commodity derivatives

This article presents a reduced‐form, two‐factor model to price commodity derivatives, which generalizes the model by Schwartz and Smith (2000). The model allows for two mean‐reverting stochastic factors and therefore implies that spot and futures prices can be stationary. An empirical study for the crude oil market tests the new model. Out‐of‐sample pricing and hedging results for futures and forwards show that the new model dominates the nonstationary model by Schwartz and Smith in the following sense: It works equally well for short‐term contracts but leads to major improvements for long‐term contracts. This finding is particularly relevant for typical applications like the valuation of commodity‐linked real assets with long maturities. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:211–241, 2005     

Die Geschäftsleiterkontrolle im Versicherungsaufsichtsrecht

The material risks, which can derive from insurance companies, legitimate the severe limitation of the insurance company manager’s constitutional right of the freedom of work. The reliability in insurance company managers is basically assumed. It can regularly only dispensed with a qualified infringement of law, not by a decline in moral standards. In this context the eligibility of infringements has to be detected by a valuation. Therefore the criteria besides the whole purpose of the German Insurance Supervision Act (VAG) are met in: The gravity of the offence, the reference to the occupation, frequency, the future comportment as well as the time lapse. Business judgements are categoricaly not approachable to the supervision of reliability.     

A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades

Among the various external information sources that influence individual investors' trading decisions, no research has considered the important influence of insiders' transactions. Retail investors might copy the behavior demonstrated by insiders' trading; therefore, this study establishes an approach to estimate the buying probability for a certain stock by a certain investor at a certain point in time and analyzes whether insider trade reports influence this probability. Using a sample of more than 270,000 retail trades in Germany between 2008 and 2009, along with more than 3000 insider trades in the same period, we find evidence of copying of insiders' trades by retail investors. The basic mimicry hypothesis holds, even when we consider an information event hypothesis and an insider attention effect hypothesis as alternative explanations. A robustness test also supports the findings.     

How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?

This paper investigates how firms should hedge price risk when payment dates are uncertain. We derive variance-minimizing strategies and show that the instrument choice is essential for this problem, similar to the choice between a strip and a stack hedge. The first setting concentrates on futures hedges, whereas the second allows for nonlinear derivatives. In both settings, firms should take positions in derivatives with different maturities simultaneously. We present an empirical analysis for commodities and exchange rates, showing that in both settings the optimal strategy clearly outperforms the commonly used heuristic strategies which consider only one hedging instrument at a time.     

Who is who

Praxis / MagazinNews

Who is who     

The relative pricing of European dividend futures and their predictive abilities for index returns

We use dividend futures prices to derive a dividend future discount model. Arbitrage arguments postulate that the sum of discounted dividend futures prices should equal the index price, i.e. the sum of discounted dividends. We analyze whether this relation holds and find that the two valuation approaches lead to a different valuation of expected dividends. These observations indicate that dividend futures and index prices seem to provide the investor with different information on future dividends. We further show that the difference in valuation can be used to forecast index returns and show how an investment strategy can exploit this predictability.